Tensions are rising between ethnic Serbs and the ethnic Albanian-led government in Kosovo due to a dispute over car license plates, which has been resolved through EU and US mediation. However, the current violence stems from a long dispute dated pre 99 war necessitating a high knowledge of local, historical and geopolitical contexts.
Escalating Tensions
Historically, Kosovo is a small, landlocked country in South Eastern Europe, and many Serbs consider it the birthplace of their nation. However, 92% of the population is Albanian and only 6% is Serbian. In the 1990s, Kosovo sought autonomy and independence from Serbia, which resulted in a brutal crackdown by Serbia and a NATO bombing campaign in 1999 that ended with Serbian forces withdrawing from Kosovo. The war resulted in 13,000 people dying in the conflict, mostly ethnic Albanians. Although Kosovo declared independence in 2008, many Kosovo Albanians and Serbs feel that the conflict has never been resolved. In 2022, the government’s plan to make those in majority ethnic Serb areas swap their Serbian-issued car number plates for Kosovan-issued ones led to civil disobedience and concern that violence between ethnic Serbs and Albanians may flare up again.
Concretely, tensions have risen in northern Kosovo between ethnic Serbs and the government after unknown attackers exchanged gunfire with police and threw a stun grenade at EU law enforcement. The tensions were sparked by the arrest of a former Serbian police officer. The events are related to a dispute over car license plates. Recently, Pristina, Kosovo’s capital city, announced that it would require ethnic Serbs in the region to scrap Serbian license plates that date back to before the Kosovo War of 1998-99. This announcement led to a mass resignation of Serbs from the police force, judiciary and governance institutions. Serb mayors in northern Kosovo municipalities, along with local judges and some 600 police officers resigned. Policemen in Pristina arrested a former police officer, Dejan Pantic, for allegedly attacking state offices, including offices of the election commission, and for attacking police officers and election officials. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic held a meeting with the National Security Council and called for calm and for the Serbs not to attack KFOR and EULEX. He urged them not to engage in any violent actions. Therefore, the arrest of a former police officer who was part of that mass resignation is what sparked the recent tensions between Serbs and the government in Kosovo. The move to require the replacement of license plates is a point of contention between the Serb minority and the government, as many Serbs do not recognize Kosovo’s independence and the new license plates would be a symbol of that recognition.
In response to one arrest by the police, Serbs in the northern area of Kosovo erected roadblocks, paralyzing traffic on two border crossings from Kosovo to Serbia. The EU and NATO have condemned the violence and called for calm and for the removal of the barricades. The Kosovo Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, has asked the NATO’s Kosovo force (KFOR) to remove the barricades that had been erected by the ethnic Serbs on the border crossing with Serbia. He called for the KFOR to guarantee the freedom of movement, but also acknowledged that KFOR asked for more time to remove the barricades and the government is currently waiting for them to take action. Kosovo police reported that they came under fire from unknown attackers in different locations near the lake that borders Serbia on late Saturday, the police responded by returning fire in self-defense, no injuries reported in these incidents.
Given the sensitive security situation, NATO’s mission in Kosovo, KFOR is probing a shooting incident in the northern area of Kosovo. KFOR confirmed that shots were fired in the northern town of Zubin Potok. According to the KFOR statement, the NATO patrol vehicle was undamaged and no injuries were reported. The shots were fired in the direction of Latvian soldiers. The details of the incident, including who fired the shots, are unclear and KFOR has not provided more information. They have increased the troops presence in the area to maintain peace with more than 3,700 troops present in the country. KFOR in Kosovo are investigating a shooting incident, and are urging for calm as Serbia’s top military officials inspect their troops on the border with Kosovo in a show of combat readiness. Serbia is urging for deployment of its troops to protect the Kosovo Serbs.
The EU mediated a deal in November to defuse the tensions, but they escalated again after Pristina scheduled local elections in Serb-majority municipalities for December 18th, which the main Serb political party planned to boycott.
An ethnic Albanian policeman was wounded while preparing the region for voting. Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani decided to postpone the local elections to April 23rd, which were scheduled for December 18th, due to the tensions and roadblocks erected in the region. France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US have welcomed the decision of postponing the local elections in Kosovo, and the EU office consider it a “constructive decision” that will help promote a more secure situation in the North according to a joint statement. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has stated that he will ask for the deployment of Serbian military and police in Kosovo which is authorized under certain conditions by UN resolution 1244 regulating the demilitarization of Kosovo. However, he believes that there is probably no chance of the request being approved. Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, has accused Serbia of threatening Kosovo with aggression.
In response, the Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has sent the country’s army chief to the border with Kosovo following the ethnic Serbs roadblocks on December 10 to protest the arrest of an ex-police officer. This roadblocks has halted traffic through two border crossings. General Milan Mojsilovic, the army chief, stated that the complex situation at the border requires the presence of the Serbian army and the tasks given to them are precise and will be fully implemented. Vucic ordered to increase the size of special armed forces from 1,500 to 5,000. It’s not clear what the purpose of these forces is, or how they will be used, but the significant increase suggests that they will be needed in the near future. Thus Vucic is preparing for a conflict -even if small scale- and is trying to instrumentalise 120,000 ethnic Serbs to reject Kosovo government’s central authority.
This situation is adding to the already high tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. The Serbian Patriarch Porfirije, who presumably wanted to deliver a peace message on the occasion of Serbian Orthodox Christmas (which is celebrated on January 7th) has been denied entry into Kosovo on Monday at the border crossing.
Lastly, there has been a recent incident where an off-duty Kosovo security officer shot and injured two ethnic Serbs, one of whom was an 11-year-old boy, in Central Kosovo. The shooter was arrested by Kosovo police. As a result of the incident, hundreds of people protested in Strpce demanding more security for ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo, another group also protested in Mitrovica against the President Vucic’s policies which are perceived to be too conciliatory towards Kosovo. This incident has increased the tension in the region, and the protests show the concern of the ethnic Serbs and the impact of the shooting on the Kosovo-Serbian relation.
Due to heightened tensions, Serbia has requested to deploy troops in Kosovo, this is the first time since the end of the war. The request was made during a series of clashes between Kosovo authorities and Serbs in the north of Kosovo, where they constitute a majority. This situation has been deemed to be serious enough that Serbia feels the need to deploy troops. A UN Security Council resolution allows, under certain conditions, Serbia to station its personnel at border crossings, Orthodox Christian religious sites, and areas with Serb majority only if it is approved by KFOR(the peacekeeping force in Kosovo). This request for deployment of troops highlights the escalation of tension and the worsening of the situation between Kosovo and Serbia.
The KFOR peacekeepers, who were deployed in Kosovo in 1999 after NATO bombing forced the Serbian army and police out of the territory, have said that there is no need for the return of the Serbian forces, as per President Aleksandar Vucic statement. The statement was given as a response to a previous statement or move made by Serbian Government to return the forces to Kosovo. The Kosovo force mission has continued to monitor the security and stability in the region after the conflict and this statement shows they believe that there is no need for additional military presence.
Geopolitics At the Core of the Conflict
This is a crucial geopolitical issue given the Ukrainian war is impacting European security in a long lasting way. The Serbian and Russian views are aligned in Kosovo’s recent incidents and differ from the Albanian representatives of Kosovo. On the one hand, the Russians blame Kosovan authorities for imposing “groundless discriminatory rules”. An MP from the party of the Serbian President made a statement comparing the situation in the Balkans to the justification used by Russian President Putin for the invasion of Ukraine, and later apologized for it. On the other hand, Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani said that Russian President Putin may use the situation in Kosovo to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and destabilize Europe further. Most importantly, Serbia has relied on the support of Russia and China in its efforts to maintain its claim on Kosovo as a province, despite Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 which is recognized by most western countries.
Serbian alliance with Russia on fueling violence in Kosovo are present. A group of members from the Narodne Patrole, a Serbian nationalist organization with ties to Russian paramilitary group Wagner, has gathered on the Serbian side of the border with Kosovo, and threatened to confront NATO troops in the area. Albin Kurti, the Prime minister of Kosovo, said he is worried that the tense situation at the border between Serbia and Kosovo could escalate, and that it could be used to the advantage of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also noted that Russian and Serbian forces have conducted 104 joint military exercises in 2021, which further fuels his anxiety about the situation. However, the Serbian defense ministry said it’s incorrect and that they conducted 21 military exercises. Prime Minister Albin Kurti also has said that the EU and US both agree that the roadblocks should be removed, but are also concerned that the situation could be used and abused by Belgrade. He suggests that the concern of the western partners is the links of Belgrade with Moscow. He is worried that Russia, who’s been severely wounded in Ukraine after its invasion and aggression, has interest in spillover to the Balkans where they have a client who’s in Belgrade. This shows that the tense situation at the border has potential ramifications not just on Serbia and Kosovo but also on the larger geopolitical front with the involvement of other countries.
The mediation at the EU level is taking place. Serbia doesn’t recognize the 2008 declaration of independence of Kosovo, while Western efforts to mediate a solution have failed. Kosovo and Serbia are currently in Brussels for talks in order to try to normalize their relations.
It appears that a proposal has been made by France and Germany to address the ongoing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo. According to the proposal, Serbia would not block Kosovo’s accession to the United Nations as a member state in exchange for EU financial support and a fast track to membership in the EU for Serbia. This proposal aims to find a way to resolve the long-standing tensions between the two countries and move towards a peaceful resolution. It also shows that the EU is looking for a way to support both countries, economically and politically, and help to bring stability to the region.
Kosovo is unable to become a UN member state without Serbia’s approval because of the veto power of Russia and China on the UN Security Council. The EU plan aims to use this leverage to resolve the long-standing tensions between the two countries by offering Serbia accession to the EU in exchange for its support for Kosovo’s accession to the UN. The plan has been tentatively welcomed by President Vucic of Serbia, however, it was later rejected by Ivica Dacic, the Serbian first deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, who is known to have close ties with the Kremlin. This rejection indicates that the plan might not be an easy one to implement as there are multiple factors and interests at play, not just the domestic politics of Serbia and Kosovo but also external influences, like Russia.
The European Union has presented a plan for the two countries to resolve the long-standing issues between them. However, the chances of a deal remain low and in the current circumstances it is difficult to see that changing, with the Ukraine war and the increasingly close economic, political, and military relations between Russia and Serbia. Moreover, Western countries may be less willing to adopt a strategy that looks like appeasement towards Serbia after the disastrous results of that strategy with Russia, which are now playing out in Ukraine. The West cannot afford for a similar failure closer to the heart of the European continent.
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.
